This article was originally published on the OSU Extension website.
Written Thursday, December 6, 2012
By Tracy Turner
WILMINGTON, Ohio – With the U.S. Agriculture Department’s forecast that corn production this year will drop to its lowest point since 2006 as a result of the historic drought nationwide, growers can expect to see tight supplies next year and lower grain prices, Ohio State University Extension economist Matt Roberts said.
Prices, supplies and demand are only some of the concerns growers have going into 2013, he said. With that in mind, Roberts will provide a market update for growers Dec. 13 during the 2012 Ohio Grain Farmers Symposium at the Roberts Centre and Holiday Inn, 123 Gano Road in Wilmington.
The symposium will allow growers the opportunity to hear the latest agricultural issues impacting their operations, said Harold Watters, an OSU Extension agronomy field specialist and coordinator of the university’s Agronomic Crops Team.
The event has a strong program lineup that offers information “every corn farmer and soybean farmer” could benefit from hearing, he said.
“Although Ohio came out fairly well compared to other Midwest states despite the drought we experienced this year, we certainly have had challenges this year,” Watters said. “We need to think about how we deal with producing a crop despite weather extremes, such as this year’s drought.”
Roberts’ presentation will focus on how the drought has impacted yields and what that means for growers in 2013.
The USDA said that as of Nov. 1, corn yields are expected to average 122.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the October forecast but 24.9 bushels below the 2011 average. Soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 4 percent from October but down 4 percent from last year. And as of Nov. 1, soybean yields are expected to average 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from October but down 2.6 bushels from last year.
While the drought had massive impacts, higher prices offset yield losses for growers, particularly along with crop insurance, Roberts said. With lower production, growers can also expect tighter supplies in 2013, which will allow for higher basis levels in the spring and summer, with the difference between local cash prices and futures prices expected to be stronger, he said.
“If we have a normal growing season in 2013, there are lots of downside risk prices,” Roberts said. “Prices at harvest will be lower than at planting. As a result, growers should market more aggressively.”
Other topics to be covered at the symposium include an Election and Farm Bill update; Climatology for the Future; a Renewable Fuels Standards update; Weed Resistance; and Water Quality. The event runs from 8 a.m. to 2:45 p.m.
Registration for the event is $35 for members of the Ohio Corn and Wheat Growers Association and the Ohio Soybean Association, and $45 for non-members. The fee includes the program, refreshments, lunch and materials. For more information, participants may contact the Ohio Soybean Association at 888-769-6446.
Registration can be made online at http://www.ohiograinfarmerssymposium.org.