Presenting research papers and posters provides valuable experience for PhD Candidates and Post Doctoral Researchers preparing to enter the job market. Wei Chen, Xiao Dong and Ana Claudia Sant’Anna will present the following at the 2018 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) meeting in Washington D.C.:
Title: The Impact of HABs on Recreational Visits to Lake Erie
Authors: David Wolf, Wei Chen, Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Timothy Haab and H. Allen Klaiber
Abstract: Lake Erie has been plagued by the emergence and growth of harmful algal blooms (HABs) for nearly 20 years. This paper simultaneously examines the effect of E. coli and HABs on recreational behavior using survey data collected from Ohio recreators who visited Lake Erie during the summer of 2016. We combine survey responses on visitation with information on harmful algal blooms acquired from remote-sensing data. Using simulation based on latent class models of recreation choice, we find that beach-goers and recreational fishermen would lose in aggregate $5.3 million and $59.2 million respectively each year if water conditions became so poor that Lake Erie’s western basin was closed. In counterfactual simulations, we find significant welfare gains of $227,000 and $4.3 million respectively associated with a 40% reduction in phosphorus loadings, which is an objective set by the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA). Finally, we recover heterogeneity in recreators’ aversion towards algae and Escherichia coli (E. coli), with beach-goers more averse to E. coli and fishermen more averse to algae, indicating that water quality remediation policies will have strong distributional effects.
Poster Title: Hoarding Behavior in Response to the EISA “Light Bulb Ban”
Authors: Xiao Dong, H. Allen Klaiber
Paper Title: Silence of Falling Trees: Hidden Forest Loss from Shale Gas Development
Authors: Xiao Dong, H. Allen Klaiber, Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Douglas H. Wrenn
Title: Determinants of Land Value Volatility in the Corn Belt
Authors: Ana Claudia Sant’Anna and Ani Katchova
Understanding land value volatility and its reaction to exogenous shocks helps land owners, investors, and lenders assess risk. Land value volatility, the variance of the unpredictable component of land value growth rates, is modelled for each of the Corn Belt states in the U.S. using EGARCH. A pooled VAR system is then estimated to capture the interactions between land value determinants and land value volatility. The variables of the pooled VAR are split into negative and positive vectors to allow for asymmetric impacts. Impulse response functions are mapped. All states exhibit land value volatility clustering. Inflation, cash rent and population growth rates granger cause land value volatility. Land value volatility responses to negative shocks are greater than those to positive shocks. Lenders and investors should expect greater swings in land values after negative shocks to land value growth rates, but not an overreaction of land values from shocks to cash rent growth rates. Positive shocks to changes in interest rates increases land value volatility, but unexpected shocks to population growth rates do not have statistically significant impact on land value volatility.