Recent Publications

Our Author(s):
By Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo This paper presents results from a recently developed dynamic timber market model of the world. The baseline results suggest that prices will rise 0.8% per year between 1995 and 2050. Harvests will rise to meet demand, although most of the growth in timber harvests is predicted to result from the expansion of emerging subtropical region plantations. This growth in harvests from emerging subtropical region plantations reduces pressure on currently inaccessible forests, and leaves them largely intact. Several alternative scenarios are presented to show how these...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ (SICI)1099-1255(199811/12)13:6%3C%3E1.0.CO;2-7/issuetocVickner, Steven S. and Stephen P. Davies. “Comment: On the Estimation of Simultaneous-Equations Error-Components Models with an Application to a Model of Developing Country Foreign Trade.” Journal of Applied Econometrics. 13(1998):671 Click here
Our Author(s):
By Brent Sohngen and Robert Mendelsohn The American Economic Review This paper establishes a methodology for valuing the impact of large-scale ecological changes in a market. Given the large capital stocks inherent in most ecological systems, the dynamic nature of most ecological change, and the dynamic response of markets, it is critical to build dynamic models to capture the resulting effects. This paper demonstrates how to construct such a model using the impacts of climate change on U.S. timber markets as an example. Across a wide range of scenarios and models, warming is predicted to...
Our Author(s):
Differences in timber market models that arise from alternative assumptions and fundamental differences in theory and structure can lead to disparate published results, as well as confusion among policy analysts and industry. This paper presents a thorough comparison of four widely used models, and then analyzes a set of published market predictions relative to historical data. The goal is to understand how fundamental differences between the models may affect market predictions. Several conclusions are drawn. First, market outlooks are largely a function of exogenous demand growth and...
Our Author(s):
By Brent Sohngen, Robert Mendelsohn, and Roger Sedjo Ecological models predict that climate change will have widespread impacts on the distribution and growth of forests around the globe. This paper carefully links these impacts to a dynamic global timber market model in order to determine how markets will adapt to these changes. The results suggest that climate change will expand long term global timber supply, timber prices will fall, and the welfare from timber will increase between 3.0 and 6.7%. Although global harvests increase, the area of both industrial and remaining inaccessible...
Our Author(s):
By Brent Sohngen, Robert Mendelsohn, and Roger Sedjo This paper addresses the effectiveness of tree planting and forest conservation strategies to increase the sink of carbon in global forests. Because forests are expected to sequester additional carbon without explicit human intervention, a baseline case is presented. The baseline predicts that forests will sequester an additional 17.9 Pg (1015 grams) of carbon over the next 150 years, with nearly 95% of this accruing to storage in marketed forest products. The paper then compares strategies which assume markets adjust to changes in future...
Vickner, Steven S., Dana L. Hoag, W. Marshall Frasier, and James C. Ascough II. “A Dynamic Economic Analysis of Nitrate Leaching in Corn Production under Nonuniform Irrigation Conditions.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 80(Number 2, 1998):397-408 Click Here
Vickner, Steven S. and Dana L. Hoag. “Advances in Ration Formulation for Beef Cattle through Multiple Objective Decision Support Systems.” In Multiple Objective Decision Making for Land, Water and Environmental Management. Edited by Samir A. El-Swaify and Diana S. Yakowitz. Boca Raton, FL: Lewis Publishers, 1998:291-298 (ISBN 1-57444-091-8) Click Here
The use of development impact fees to finance public facilities that are necessary to service new growth is a practice that has gained importance and acceptance in the last decade. In the U.S. the practice and widespread use of the DIF are asymmetric. Even though DIF are widely accepted, many public officials, developers and the general public do not yet understand the need for DIF and their effect on the economy. There are important policy and legal issues involved. Selected state experience is reviewed here. By Lawrence Libby
Our Author(s):
(with Md. Nazmul Hassan) Using a unique panel dataset that includes linked data on migrants and origin households, we assess the impact of information asymmetries. Variation in travel times is used to generate variation in the cost of communication between migrants and origin households. However, because migration, as well as the destination, may be chosen with information asymmetries in mind, two sets of instrumental variables are employed: wages and migrant networks at potential destinations. Preliminary results suggest that both migrants and origin households face agency problems...

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