Recent Publications

The question underlying the data reported here is how does urbanization and increasing numbers of non-farm rural residences impact the business of farming and the structure of agriculture in Ohio?
Data come from the decennial U.S. census for the time period 1950 to 1990. Also included are 1998 census estimates of population released in March of 1999. Analysis of rural and urban characteristics of the population is confined to the decennial census data since the estimated 1998 population data does not make this distinction. Because of this, some of the data compiled in the tables and texts are for the time period 1950 to 1990 and some are for the time period 1950 to 1998. Despite the 1990 data being somewhat out of date, the reported trends are still worthy of consideration with...
Frontier Session Organizers and Presenters. Vickner, Steven S. and Stephen P. Davies. "Simultaneous-Equations Panel Data Econometric Methods." One of the two annual Frontier Sessions, Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Nashville, TN, August 8-11, 1999
Farmland policy seems to be firmly established on the state and local policy agenda in Ohio. It was two years ago this month that the Governor’s Farmland Preservation Task Force made its final report to the state (Ohio Farmland Preservation Task Force). That report spawned several legislative initiatives that continue today, with emphasis on market rules that acknowledge the non-market services that farmland provides. The general political mood seems open and generally positive on the topic, in search of reasonable ways to accommodate and yet direct the economic forces of change so important...
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By Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo This paper presents carbon flux estimates arising from the effect of increasing demand on harvests and management of industrial forests in a global timber market. Results are presented for specific regions and the globe. Harvests and management of forests is predicted to store an additional 184 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 grams) of carbon per year in forests and wood products over the next 50 years, with a range of 108 to 251 Tg per year. Although harvests in natural boreal and tropical forest regions will cause carbon releases, new plantation establishment in subtropical...
Vickner, Steven S. and Stephen P. Davies. “Estimating Market Power and Pricing Conduct in a Product-Differentiated Oligopoly.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 31(1999):1-13
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By Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo This paper presents results from a recently developed dynamic timber market model of the world. The baseline results suggest that prices will rise 0.8% per year between 1995 and 2050. Harvests will rise to meet demand, although most of the growth in timber harvests is predicted to result from the expansion of emerging subtropical region plantations. This growth in harvests from emerging subtropical region plantations reduces pressure on currently inaccessible forests, and leaves them largely intact. Several alternative scenarios are presented to show how these...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ (SICI)1099-1255(199811/12)13:6%3C%3E1.0.CO;2-7/issuetocVickner, Steven S. and Stephen P. Davies. “Comment: On the Estimation of Simultaneous-Equations Error-Components Models with an Application to a Model of Developing Country Foreign Trade.” Journal of Applied Econometrics. 13(1998):671 Click here
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By Brent Sohngen and Robert Mendelsohn The American Economic Review This paper establishes a methodology for valuing the impact of large-scale ecological changes in a market. Given the large capital stocks inherent in most ecological systems, the dynamic nature of most ecological change, and the dynamic response of markets, it is critical to build dynamic models to capture the resulting effects. This paper demonstrates how to construct such a model using the impacts of climate change on U.S. timber markets as an example. Across a wide range of scenarios and models, warming is predicted to...
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By Brent Sohngen, Robert Mendelsohn, and Roger Sedjo Ecological models predict that climate change will have widespread impacts on the distribution and growth of forests around the globe. This paper carefully links these impacts to a dynamic global timber market model in order to determine how markets will adapt to these changes. The results suggest that climate change will expand long term global timber supply, timber prices will fall, and the welfare from timber will increase between 3.0 and 6.7%. Although global harvests increase, the area of both industrial and remaining inaccessible...

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