Presentation at the 2018 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference, November 2, 2018.
This report provides an outlook on agricultural lending and delinquencies for Ohio for fall 2018.
The United State Department of Agriculture (USDA), on August 30, forecasted U.S. net farm income for 2018 to decline 13% from last year, from $75.5 billion in 2017 to $65.7 billion in 2018 (USDA 2018). If realized, U.S. net farm income would decrease to levels witnessed in 2016 (Figure 1). This decline is even larger when we consider inflation-adjusted values, showing a 14.8% decrease in real U.S. net farm income. The USDA also made a similar downward forecast for U.S. net cash income. Net cash income is projected to drop 12% in 2018, from $104 billion in 2017 to $91.5 billion in 2018. These...
Evaluation of WTO/Gatt and extent to which it will act as a constraint on economic nationalism. With Daniel Chow (Moritz College of Law, Ohio State) and William McGuire (University of Washington, Tacoma) https://academic.oup.com/ajae/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ajae/aay060/50...
"The impact of science parks on small- and medium-sized enterprises' productivity distributions: the case of Taiwan and South Korea
Analysis of impact of science parks on productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises - also with Syed Hasan (Lahore University of Management)
This is the first edition of a new, semi-annual, agricultural outlook report by faculty and staff of AEDE.
NBER Working Paper 24772 - co-authored with Kari E.R. Heerman (ERS/USDA) and presented at "Trade and Agriculture Conference", NBER, Cambridge, May 2018. Discussion of methodology for adapting applied general equilibrium model to reflect both random and non-random variation in agricultural productivity across countries.
An economic and legal evaluation of US trade policy towards China. With Daniel Chow (Moritz College of Law, Ohio State) and William McGuire (University of Washington Tacoma)
"The Role of Intellectual Property Rights in Seed Technology Transfer through Trade: Evidence from U.S. Field Crop Seed Exports"
Evaluation of effects of intellectual property rights on U.S. seed exports. With Minyu Zhou (Discover) and Jihyun Eum (Bank of Korea).
We build a novel stochastic dynamic regional integrated assessment model (IAM) of the climate and economic system including a number of important climate science elements that are missing in most IAMs. These elements are spatial heat transport from the Equator to the Poles, sea level rise, permafrost thaw and tipping points. We study optimal policies under cooperation and various degrees of competition between regions. Our results suggest that when the elements of climate science which are accounted for in this paper are ignored, important policy variables such as the social cost of carbon...