Presentation at Dean's Outlook Preview Meeting, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
Presented at The Ohio State University's 2016-2017 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Dean's Preview Meeting on December 1, 2016.
Presentation at Economic Outlook Conference, 2017, Ohio Wesleyan University, Delaware, OH
Seminar presentation, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
Presentation at panel on Key Presidential Election Issue, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
In stark contrast to financial markets, relatively little attention has been given to modeling agricultural commodity price volatility. In recent years, numerous methodologies with various strengths have been proposed for modeling price volatility in financial markets. We propose using a mixture of normals with unique GARCH processes in each component for modeling agricultural commodity prices. While a normal mixture model is quite flexible and allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis, its biggest strength is that each component can be viewed as a different market regime and thus...
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppw019. In this paper, the impact of border measures for climate policy on carbon leakage, and competitiveness of US aluminum producers is analyzed. An appropriate border measure is shown to depend on competition in aluminum production, as well as the basis for assessing trade neutrality of a border measure. If neutrality is based on market volume, carbon leakage is prevented, but competitiveness cannot be maintained. If neutrality is based on market share, competitiveness can be maintained and there is negative carbon leakage. In...
Small businesses and entrepreneurs have long been recognized for the important role they play in our economy. As recently as the first quarter of 2015, small businesses with fewer than 50 employees accounted for more than a quarter of total employment in Ohio, while nearly one in ten jobs were in businesses five years old and younger. Yet, even more important than the total job numbers, small businesses and entrepreneurs play a critical role in the dynamic evolution of the economy through job creation and job destruction. Simply, small business and new business development is a lot like a...
Roundtable presentation at AAEA meetings, Boston, MA
A large number of Ohio farmers hire machinery operations and other farm related work to be completed by others. This is often due to lack of proper equipment, lack of time or lack of expertise for a particular operation. Many farm business owners do not own equipment for every possible job that they may encounter in the course of operating a farm and may, instead of purchasing the equipment needed, seek out someone with the proper tools necessary to complete the job. This farm work completed by others is often referred to as “custom farm work” or more simply “custom work”. A “custom rate” is...