The Potential Role of Plantations in Future Timber Supply

By Brent Sohngen and Roger Sedjo

This paper presents results from a recently developed dynamic timber market model of the world. The baseline results suggest that prices will rise 0.8% per year between 1995 and 2050. Harvests will rise to meet demand, although most of the growth in timber harvests is predicted to result from the expansion of emerging subtropical region plantations. This growth in harvests from emerging subtropical region plantations reduces pressure on currently inaccessible forests, and leaves them largely intact. Several alternative scenarios are presented to show how these results are sensitive to the rate of growth of timber demand, prices, and costs of establishing plantations and harvesting inaccessible forests.