The Effect of Climate Change on Global Timber Markets

By Brent Sohngen, Robert Mendelsohn, and Roger Sedjo

Ecological models predict that climate change will have widespread impacts on the distribution and growth of forests around the globe. This paper carefully links these impacts to a dynamic global timber market model in order to determine how markets will adapt to these changes. The results suggest that climate change will expand long term global timber supply, timber prices will fall, and the welfare from timber will increase between 3.0 and 6.7%. Although global harvests increase, the area of both industrial and remaining inaccessible wilderness forests expands during climate. Consumers in all regions benefit from lower prices, but producer welfare varies from region to region. In general, producer surplus in developing countries rises while it declines in developed countries.

Publication type: 
Working paper
Date published: 
Thursday, August 13, 1998