Recent Publications
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CAUV values projections for 2020 and 2021.
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This report provides information on agricultural loan volumes and delinquencies for Ohio for 2019.
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Jointly authored with Steve McCorriston (University of Exeter), this paper examines the common causes of populism and economic nationalism in the US and UK, focusing on the "China shock". The key difference in the policy response of the two countries is that the US has become more protectionist, while the UK seeks new free trade agreements following Brexit. However, both policy choices are costly, with implications for economic integration.
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Update on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies through second quarter of 2019.
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Published in the Cardozo Law Review with Daniel Chow, Moritz College of Law, Ohio State University, and William McGuire, University of Washington, Tacoma. Article is an evaluation of US economic nationalism and its potential effect on the multilateral trading system.
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This paper studies both theoretically and empirically the impact of using trade as a peace instrument to avoid an anticipated interstate conflict between countries disputing a historical territory. The impact of trade is examined through the role of organized interest groups in influencing their governments’ foreign policies. A game theoretical model is used to observe the dynamics at the domestic and international level of negotiating a peace agreement that can be accompanied with a trade agreement. Using backward induction, I find that the probability of conflict depends on the contribution...
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This paper investigates the relationship between civil strife and extreme climatic events through their impact on local food prices and availability while exploring the role of trade liberalization in agricultural products in mitigating social unrest in developing countries. Using the collective action problem, I investigate the impact of food accessibility and trade barriers on people’s resentment level towards their government. From the theoretical model, I derive two hypotheses. First, a significant decrease in precipitation rates will provoke demonstrations. Second, a decrease in tariff...
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More than one quarter of the world’s population lives in water-scarce areas, while most countries share at least one transboundary river with at least one riparian country. Knowing that, one question comes to mind: if water-scarcity is prevalent, should we expect riparian countries to fight over the water allocation of shared rivers? To answer this question, I use a modified version of the river sharing game in which countries can resort to force to solve the water allocation problem. Using backward induction, I solve for the probability of the downstream country using force against the...
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CAUV Projections for 2019 and 2020
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Curbing environmental pollution is a key priority in China as reflected in the adoption of policies such as “New Normal” and the takeover of environmental enforcement by the top leadership of the central government in 2015. In this paper, we use a dataset of publicly-traded firms in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and the event study methodology to gauge the reaction of the investor class to the new environmental enforcement regime. Our results indicate that, together, the announcement and implementation of the new enforcement regime spurred a significant decline of over $29 billion...